Dec. 12--Holiday 2000 is expected to be a turning point in getting neophytes to shop online, researchers said.
One market-research firm, Active Research Inc. -- which provides online shopping guides and collects preference data from users for corporate clients -- conducted a four-question survey of Internet users from Nov. 24 through Dec. 6. Based on that 1,135-person sampling, the firm predicted 45 percent of online shoppers will be first-timers this holiday season.
By contrast, Jupiter Research's survey of users and retailers, done before buying season began, concluded that about 17 percent of the estimated 35 million holiday shoppers will be first-timers.
"One of the biggest issues with newer buyers is security," said Heather Dougherty, a retail analyst with Jupiter Research. "If you're really targeting a lot of first-time buyers, hit them over the head with `everything is fine,'" she advised.
In addition, first-time shoppers tend to favor stores that have brand names and a physical store presence more than experienced web shoppers, according to Active Research Inc. Jupiter added that reluctant online shoppers tend to be willing to go online to find items they can't find in a store near them.
Such factors give the edge to sites of brand-name companies such as walmart.com or relative veterans such as Amazon.com, which have developed a reputation for reliability and safety and which continue to reassure shoppers that their transactions are safe and in good hands.
Overall this season, spending will be robust, at $388 per person, Active Research estimated, and the biggest spenders will be men and those over age 55. The most active shoppers will be those ages 25 to 34, the firm estimated, with the heaviest shoppers expected to spend $1,045 online, compared with $243 for medium spenders and $17 for light spenders.
While giving newcomers a safe and reliable online shopping trip will build a baseline for future growth, analysts said, the online retailers will get the biggest dollar gains this year from experienced shoppers who have graduated from music or book purchases to more-expensive items.
"The real growth in online spending is from veteran shoppers, hooked on the convenience, the ability to avoid crowds" and with enough experience not to fear security breaches, Dougherty said.
Both Active Research and Jupiter said men will outpace women in their online spending, but Jupiter expects that to change within the next two years.
"Offline, women control 70 percent of the household spending budget," Dougherty said. "That's going to happen online too."
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(c) 2000, San Jose Mercury News, Calif. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.
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